The Martin Luther College Knights come into this contest with a 9-1 record, with their only loss coming to non-conference opponent Gustavus Adolphus College in week one. They went undefeated in Upper Midwest Athletic Conference play (obviously), earning their second consecutive and overall bid to the Division III playoffs, rolled to #2 in DIII in rushing with 335.8 yards per game, and even got a little national recognition, receiving some votes for ranking in NCAA's regional rankings. The Knights have not one, but two 1000-yard rushers, and have held their opponents to 234.4 yards per game, good for #8 in DIII in Total Defense. Not too shabby, eh? Well, lets take a look at their competition on Saturday.
The Wheaton College Thunder hail from the College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin, in which they went undefeated and also won their only non-conference matchup, making them a perfect 10-0 in 2019. They are currently ranked #3 in D3football.com's Top 25, and were the "top seed" in their region for the Division III playoffs. Some playoff history: Wheaton is making its 11th overall appearance in the Division III Playoffs and first since 2016. Their 11 NCAA Playoff selections are tied for the second-most in CCIW history. The Thunder have compiled a 15-10 all-time record in the postseason, including a perfect 10-0 record in the first round. This year, the they have been outstanding defensively, leading DIII in Total Defense by only allowing 174.9 yards per game. They defeated a ranked opponent in conference foe North Central, and also defeated fellow Division III automatic playoff bid Monmouth. According to D3football.com, they have the #32 strength of schedule, a measurement that helps determine how difficult teams' schedules were in direct comparison with other teams'. So...they're pretty good.
What does this mean for our lovable Knights? Well...it's not good news. Remember that strength of schedule thing? Martin Luther's strength of schedule ranking in Division III football is #215. What that means is that there is a massive disparity between these two teams in terms of the competition they face. And guess what? That isn't Martin Luther's fault. So they are the best team in one of the worst conferences in Division III football...so what? Well, what that means is that even though they do very well against these weak opponents, it doesn't go so well when they play a stronger opponent.
The common opponent thread is a tough one to strum this year. Martin Luther didn't play anyone from the CCIW this year, and vise versa, Wheaton didn't have any UMAC opponents (thank God). In fact, no UMAC teams played any CCIW teams. These conferences don't often intersect; the last time that did happen was a series between Milikin and Greenville University from 2010 to 2016, in which Milikin defeated Greenville 6 out of 7 matchups. What I can tell you is that the CCIW generally is a stronger conference, and the conference champion (mostly Wheaton and North Central) often snatches a victory or two in the Division III playoffs. The UMAC has had no such luck, and really hasn't even come close. The closest margin of defeat for a UMAC team in the Division III playoffs was 28 points, when St. John's defeated St. Scholastica 35-7 in 2014. And let's not forget last year's drubbing of the Knights by St. John's. I won't even mention the score, as I'm sure it'll bring up some PTSD in some of you.
In conclusion, the Martin Luther College Knights wonderful, magical season will come to a close this weekend. This is not a call out, I don't hate Martin Luther, and I don't hate the UMAC; I just think of it as the circle of life. Do lions ever get eaten by antelope? No, and that probably won't ever change. Does that mean that I fault the antelope for never eating lions? No, I don't expect them to. I'm just proud when the antelope can escape and run free and not get torn to shreds. (And yes, I realize this GIF is not an antelope. Besides the point.) So Knights; spread your wings and fly. Enjoy the moments you have left, especially you seniors and those who have finished your college playing careers. Don't think about getting torn to pieces; think about running free for the short time you have left. Okay, my analogy has worn out its welcome, so I'll end with this: do I think that Martin Luther has a chance? Oh yes, there's always a chance. I'll put the percentage at 0.5% chance at stealing a victory from Wheaton. I'll put the final score at 63-6. I seriously do wish you guys all the luck in the world, and know that the whole UMAC is lucky to have you as our representatives in the Division III playoffs. Thanks for a great and fun year, and this is the biggest, most important challenge I'll give out all year: PROVE. ME. WRONG. KNIGHTS!!
I'll do what I can to keep up with the game this weekend, although it may be a challenge as I'm working the weekend. Wheaton will host Martin Luther at their home stadium with a kickoff time of noon. Follow the Wheaton Thunder athletic page for Twitter updates, and I'll be writing up a season review following the inevitable first-round exit from the Division III playoffs. You can find the full Division III Playoff bracket here. Once again, congratulations Martin Luther College Knights on another UMAC championship, and good luck in the playoffs this weekend!!
You're gonna need it.
So you're saying there's a chance? If the "antelope" had just gone in a little lower he would have taken the lion out! Go Knights!
ReplyDeleteThere's always a chance! It's just pretty small. I agree though, go Knights!
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